With nine new starters on offense, including the loss of quarterback Nico Iamaleava, two of their three key games on the road this year as opposed to one last year and their best overall player from a year ago in edge rusher James Pearce Jr. gone to the NFL, Tennessee football has a tall task returning to the College Football Playoff. Can the Vols pull it off?
Joey Aguilar mans the offense at signal-caller with George MacIntyre and Jake Merklinger backing him up. A whole new crop of receivers and four new offensive linemen round out an uncertain offense. Defensively, four linemen are gone, but the whole back seven is back. With all of that in mind, here is a game-by-game prediction for Tennessee football in 2025.
Aug. 30: vs. Syracuse – WIN (1-0)
Both teams are breaking in a new quarterback, new receivers and four new offensive linemen after going 10-3 last year. In that situation, the Vols have the advantage simply due to the fact that they have better players, but Josh Heupel’s offense is also more conducive to being picked up early than what Fran Brown and Jeff Nixon run with the Orange. UT wins in Atlanta easily.
Sept. 6: East Tennessee State University – WIN (2-0)
Do we really have to question this one? The ETSU Buccaneers are a decent FCS program but are about to have their third head coach in as many years. UT should be able to fall out of bed and win this game in a blowout, and this will be a game where Heupel tries to inflate his offensive players’ stats.
Sept. 13: Georgia – WIN (3-0)
Yes, Tennessee football upsets the Bulldogs this year. Both teams have a lot of new talent, but Dawgs quarterback Gunner Stockton is not totally proven, and with the pro-style they run, they will be a bit sloppier early than the Vols’ offense, while UT’s defense is experienced. Add in this game being in Knoxville, and Tennessee will steal an upset here.
Sept. 20: UAB – WIN (4-0)
Expect a bit of a hangover after such a thrilling win over UGA, but the Vols won’t let up against the UAB Blazers. They’ll still win running away, as they should, and by this point, they’ll be a top five team and poised to get out of September undefeated. a CFP berth will look like a lock now.
Sept. 27: at Mississippi State – LOSS (4-1)
Heupel is good for one bad upset road loss a year, and these Bulldogs will be much better in a second season under Jeff Lebby, Heupel’s offensive coordinator when they went undefeated with the UCF Knights. At worst, MSU will enter this game 3-1, making this good enough to be a night game for them at home. That’ll be enough to upset UT.
Oct. 11: Arkansas – WIN (5-1)
This is a trap game, coming off a bye and, in my projections coming off a loss, with the Alabama Crimson Tide the next week, but given what the Razorbacks did to the Vols last year, they won’t lose this one. Add in the fact that Tennessee football is playing the Hogs at home, and a blowout could be on the horizon.
Oct. 18: at Alabama – LOSS (5-2)
Write this one off. MSU will be an upset loss, but Bama will just be a loss. Kalen DeBoer’s team will be significantly better with Ty Simpson at the helm and Ryan Grubb back as OC. The combination will make them unbeatable at home, and UT doesn’t steal games on the road, so the Crimson Tide win in a blowout.
Oct. 25: at Kentucky – WIN (6-2)
On paper, the Wildcats are one of those teams good enough to upset Tennessee football when the Vols are on the road given Heupel’s track record, but it’s Kentucky. UT never loses to them, and Mark Stoops’ program seems to be on a downward slide. As a result, the Vols will win this game, but it won’t be pretty.
Nov. 1: Oklahoma – WIN (7-2)
Despite a new quarterback and offensive coordinator, both from the Washington State Cougars, the OU Sooners are being massively overrated right now. Brent Venables is still losing his grip on the program, and by November of this year, that’ll be clear. Playing this game in Knoxville, the Vols win in a blowout.
Nov. 15: New Mexico State – WIN (8-2)
Coming off another bye, UT will be looking ahead to the Florida Gators, but they will still be good enough to easily dismantle the Aggies. Once again, there is no level of effort required here, and if Aguilar is in the Heisman race, expect Heupel to do everything he can to inflate his numbers in this game.
Nov. 22: at Florida – LOSS (8-3)
With a CFB Playoff berth on the line, the Vols will break their fans’ hearts. They don’t beat the Gators on the road. Even if the program has unraveled under Billy Napier by this point, if a bowl berth or a chance to send out Napier strong is on the line after he was fired, Florida will use it to upset a UT team that, again, struggles on the road under Heupel.
Nov. 29: Vanderbilt – WIN (9-3)
Even with Tennessee football dejected from the Florida loss, the Vols will have enough to blow out the Commodores at home. Heupel and co. will make sure to send Aguilar and a few other seniors in this program off on the right foot, and it will give them his fourth straight season of nine or more wins.
As a result, the Vols will finish the year 9-3 and just miss the CFP. They will play the role of Alabama, the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Ole Miss Rebels last year and say they belonged in over an 11-1 ACC team, but it won’t matter. Still, a lot of talent will be back in 2026, which will give them something to build toward.
The post Tennessee football: Game-by game prediction for Vols’ 2025 season first appeared on Off The Hook Sports with Dave Hooker.
